Judith Curry from the Currysphere:
“evidence for a hypothesis is represented as green, evidence against is represented as red, and the white area reflecting uncommitted belief that can be associated with uncertainty in evidence or unknowns….
As a litmus test question, I prefer the following:
Will the climate of the 21st century will [sic] be dominated by anthropogenic warming (green) or natural variability (solar, volcanoes, natural internal oscillations)?
which is the question with the greatest policy relevance, IMO. My scores on this one are
- green 25%
- white 50%,
- red 25%.
Hmmm. Never mind the tiny sensitivity of climate implied. Just consider the clarity of thought involved here.
Do you think this creature is a duck?
Not duck: 25%
I am 50% uncertain whether it is a duck, and I am equally 25% certain that it is a duck and that it isn’t a duck.
Well, that clears it up, thanks.